The population and employment projections for the next 20 years are documented in the recent report entitled Richland County Development Futures Study: Trends Versus Compact Development 2000-2020. This report commissioned by the Palmetto Foundation and written by Robert W. Burchell, Ph.D., forms the basis for the population and employment projections used in the Vision Plan. The report summarizes projections for both population, employment growth, and the land area required for each. Table 4-1 highlights the statistical basis for the projections. The “Trends Extended” projections are based on the current rates of growth for each sector of the region, and assume that this will continue at the same pace for the next twenty years. It is significant to note that of the remaining 266,000 acres of developable land in the county, 27,810 acres are required to accommodate the projected growth. Figure 4-1 illustrates the likely pattern of development based on this Trends Extended approach.

One of the significant changes recommended by the Burchell Report is the redirection of growth away from the northern part of the county, into the less dense corridors in Lower Richland. The report also recommends locating more of the development in the urbanized areas and reducing the amount of development assigned to the rural portions of the county.

The other significant feature of the Burchell recommendation is the introduction of an Urban Service Boundary. This defines the limit between the growth area and the rural area to be preserved. One of the advantages of the Burchell approach is the reduction in the total land area required for future growth and its redirection. The table shows a reduction of 5500 acres in overall urbanization over the Trends Extended approach. 

The planning team has adopted the Burchell growth projections, the assignment of growth to each corridor, and the total area required for urbanization in the report. We however recommend a different approach to its distribution.